The last three weekends of Monster Energy Supercross racing in the 450SX class have been a frustrating period for Red Bull KTM Factory Racing’s Chase Sexton, who has seen a 10-point buffer over title rival Cooper Webb (Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing) turn into what is now a five-point deficit seven rounds in.

On paper, a 15-point swing can be seen as not the biggest deal. A few good rounds for Webb, a few average rounds for Sexton, and you have the story of most championship fights, with momentum swinging in differing directions.

The frustration lies in how the 15-point swing occurred, because realistically, Sexton hasn’t been the victim of a natural swing in momentum. In some sense, it’s easy to say that he actually has been the one with the momentum on his side. Instead, what has been the former champion’s kryptonite over the last three rounds has been a series of self-inflicted mistakes.

Image: Octopi Media.

Take Tampa, for instance. Fastest 450SX qualifier, a heat race win, and a main event holeshot. Doesn’t exactly sound like Lady Luck is against the #4, right? And yet, a late-race error whilst leading resulted in a damaged motorcycle and a fifth-place finish, coughing up five points to Webb, who finished second.

Then there’s Detroit. Fastest 450SX qualifier, heat race winner, and then another hurdle is reached – the championship leader appears to ‘time’ the gate and hits it prematurely, subsequently crossing the holeshot line in last position. Again, momentum doesn’t appear to be playing a role in this situation, as Sexton produces a valiant ride to P3, however, loses a further five points to Webb who claimed his first win of the season.

Finally, Arlington this past weekend. Perhaps the most painful of them all, since with a 3-2 scorecard entering the final race of the Triple Crown, Sexton was in the box seat to claim victory, and he was on target for the entire final race until the last lap. 

Image: Octopi Media.

Stalling his 450 SX-F while out front relegated him back two positions, meaning he would need to make up one spot to reclaim the night’s overall. He did this with a well-executed pass on Ken Roczen (Progressive Ecstar Suzuki), and from there – especially after the stall – one would think that mailing it in for the overall would be a sufficient ending to the weekend.

Evidently, this wasn’t the case. Sexton then decided to go all-out in the dying laps, posting qualifying-style laps in an attempt to chase down Webb for what appeared to be pride, as a pass on his title rival had no implications toward the overall round score.

The story ends with Sexton hitting the ground after tagging Webb’s rear wheel, losing three positions in the race, and going from the round winner to third place on the box in a matter of seconds, and again, handing over the win and five points to the #2.

Given the landscape, it doesn’t seem like any crazy momentum swing has occurred, and it’s just a waiting game for Sexton to reclaim it. Contrary to that theory, it seems that he has had the momentum, with Webb being the opportunist that he is, capitalizing on these mistakes and making hay whilst the sun shines.

Image: Octopi Media.

The current question reverberating around the pits is this, ‘What can Sexton do to limit these mistakes?’ It’s a good question and one that, unfortunately, has been a thorn in his side throughout his 450SX career. There have been theories aplenty on this topic, but the reality is, that these mistakes haven’t been resolved.

While the spotlight on the young rider is harsh with a mountain of criticism falling on his shoulders, this commentary exists because of his potential for brilliance. If these mistakes could be mitigated, then his blistering speed and textbook technique combination would be lethal, as he would close out races and championships.

It’s a conundrum, no doubt, and one that the Sexton camp will be mulling over vigorously to solve because the current situation is that Webb – or any other of his championship competitors – don’t need that type of opening.

When you’ve got the momentum, it must be maximized, because there is likely a time, especially over the course of 17 rounds, that you will lose it. Therefore, relinquishing 15 points while holding a decent share of the momentum could prove costly once the title-race ultimately concludes come May in Utah.