Newly-crowned 450MX champion Chase Sexton is the rider under most pressure entering the SuperMotocross World Championship (SMX) playoffs beginning this weekend in Charlotte. That’s the opinion of James Stewart and Ricky Carmichael as Sexton and defending SMX champion Jett Lawrence prepare to go head-to-head across the three-round finals series.

As former teammates at Team Honda HRC, last year’s Monster Energy Supercross champion Sexton moved on to attempt to defend his title at Red Bull KTM this year, but it was Lawrence – already the reigning Pro Motocross and inaugural 450SMX number one – in his rookie campaign that captured the 2024 450SX crown.

A thumb injury in the mid-stages of this year’s outdoor season saw Lawrence’s title defense effectively crushed, at a time when Sexton was finally gaining proper comfort on the 450 SX-F and its characteristics, which enabled him to go on and dominate the series this summer with seven overall victories to his credit. Lawrence won the rest prior to his injury.

Now, with Sexton riding a wave of confidence and Lawrence plotting his return from injury in time for ZMax Dragway’s SMX opener this Saturday (pre-race festivities and practice commence on Friday for those in the region), it sets up the ultimate showdown between the pair in a bid for SMX supremacy. The uncertainty is enough to question just how competitive Sexton can be back indoors.

Both Stewart and Carmichael – two icons of the sport turned NBC analysts – believe the expectation largely falls on 24-year-old Sexton to prove his form directly against Lawrence, who recently turned 21 years of age and will be equipped with the updated new 2025 CRF450R. And they didn’t pull any punches this week when questioned on the topic of Sexton vs Lawrence.

“I think we are in a unique spot coming into these playoff rounds,” Stewart said. “Chase and Jett Lawrence are in ‘must’ situations and not necessarily for the title or just trying to win the whole thing, but really against each other, and I would even throw Eli Tomac in there, [and] guys like Cooper Webb. When you think about Chase and what he was able to accomplish this outdoor season, I think it’s important for him to somewhat solidify that.

“These playoffs, come back and say ‘No, just because Jett was out, it wouldn’t have changed anything… I’m a new person, I’m a new guy, I have a new team, things are different, I had to learn a whole new motorcycle throughout the Supercross season, but now you’re seeing the real Chase Sexton’. If I’m Chase, I’m saying ‘No-one can beat this version. I was close on the Honda, but I’m a better person’.

“And if you’re Jett Lawrence, you’re looking at Chase and knowing how good he is, you’re trying to stop that, because you see that. I think with Chase, it’s a lot of pressure on him to be able to deliver and kind of continue that success and keep that momentum going. If he goes into Charlotte – and I know it’s a unique format – and Jett basically comes off the couch and beats him, then everything that he’s done at least for his sake and his mentality, I think it somewhat gets erased.

“We can go in two weeks to Dallas and he could win that one, but I think this weekend in particular it’s really important for both of those guys to manage and try to race each other, beat one another – specifically for Chase Sexton. It’s a big weekend for him and I say he has to deliver.”

While Stewart has been openly critical of Sexton – a rider he used to train on the bike – on the record at times, Carmichael is also looking for Sexton to take on Lawrence in SMX. It’s an important moment that could also define their off-seasons leading into Supercross next January.

“I think Chase has most of the pressure,” Carmichael added. “If you look at it, he’s incredibly dependable, he’s always there, [but] he got help when he won the regional [250SX] championship when [Austin] Forkner fell, he got help when he won the [450SX] championship when Tomac blew his achilles out, he got help in the Pro Motocross Championship this season when Jett went down.

“I understand you have to be in it to win it – that’s why I said he’s so dependable – but I just don’t understand how that wouldn’t play a small little part in the back of your mind. That’s why I kind of feel like, what James is saying, he needs to come out here and… well, he doesn’t have to do anything, but to solidify that he is the champion, that he is better than he’s ever been, and he’s better than Jett, he has to show us. He has to do it. I think it’s going to be hard for him.

“Jett has a little bit of leeway, coming off of an injury and I don’t know that he would want to use that as an excuse, but those are the facts. It’s gonna be fun just to see how Jett responds. Personally, I feel like Jett is a better rider, he’s a better all-over athlete, and has better bike skill than Chase does. In the long run, that’s going to help him beat Chase.

“[Chase] is in the driver’s seat, he is in more of a must situation than Jett is, because [Jett’s] won against everybody, he doesn’t have as many asterisks beside his name on championships as what Chase does. That’s not to take anything away from Chase, because he is an incredible athlete, but Jett’s pretty good too.”